The Impact of Climate Change to 2030: Commissioned Research and Conference Reports

Following the publication in 2008 of the National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 the National Intelligence Council (NIC) embarked on a research effort to explore in greater detail the national security implications of climate change in six countries/regions of the world: India, China, Russia, North Africa, Mexico and the Caribbean, and Southeast Asia and the Pacific Island States. 

For each country/region we are adopting a three-phase approach.

• In the first phase, commissioned research reports explore the latest scientific findings on the impact of climate change in the specific region/country.
• In the second phase, a workshop or conference composed of experts from outside the Intelligence Community (IC) will determine if anticipated changes from the effects of climate change will force inter- and intra-state migrations, cause economic hardship, or result in increased social tensions or state instability within the country/region.
• In the final phase, the NIC Long-Range Analysis Unit (LRAU) will lead an IC effort to identify and summarize for the policy community the anticipated impact on US national security.

The targeted time frame is to 2030, although various studies referenced in these reports have diverse time frames.

The reports available from this project appear on the NIC Publications page listed under Reports and Publications.